Statesboro, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

851
FXUS62 KCHS 152328
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
728 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area into the
weekend. A weak cold front could approach the region this
weekend with high pressure prevailing thereafter. A much
stronger

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Overall, a very quiet and early summer-like
overnight period is expected. Coming off an afternoon with highs
in the low 90s and with persistent southwest flow driven by a
nearby inland trough, it will be a very mild night. Lows are
forecast to only dip into the upper 60s for inland areas while
the coastal corridor lingers in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: The hottest day of the year so far seems likely across
the region as strong upper ridging holds across the Southeast
States. H8 temperatures are forecast to rise to 17-19C with low-
level thicknesses peaking 1420-1425 m during peak heating. This
coupled with little in the way of significant cloud cover and a
downslope flow aloft should allow highs to reach into the
lower-mid 90s just above everywhere except along the immediate
coast where a late afternoon resultant sea breeze will take
shape. Record highs at both the Charleston and Savannah Intl
Airports could be challenged. The record in Downtown
Charleston/Waterfront Park looks safe for now given where the
resultant sea breeze is expected to set up, but even a slight
delay in its development will have implications for Downtown
Charleston. Modified forecast soundings show the atmosphere
remaining strongly capped through the day with no forcing aloft
noted given the orientation of the upper ridge. A rain-free
forecast was maintained. Dewpoints are now forecast to mix out a
bit more than previously expected with value dropping into the
upper 60s/lower 70s. The resulting heat indices peak in the
98-101 range and well below the 108 Heat Advisory criteria.
While this is a tad lower than previous forecasts, the baseline
key message remains that extra precautions should be taken given
its the first significant heat episode of the year. Note, the
experimental Heat Risk level is solidly in the orange/risk level
2 category all but the beaches. It will be a warm overnight
with lows dropping into the upper 60s/lower 70s, except mid 70s
at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

Saturday: The upper ridge aloft will steadily weaken with the
flow aloft becoming more zonal with time. A cold front will
meander into South Carolina and Georgia during the day, but
there is much uncertainty how far south the front will drift as
it becomes increasingly parallel to the flow aloft. Some degree
of convection will accompany the front as it moves into northern
Georgia, the Upstate into western North Carolina Saturday
morning, but guidance remains mixed on how much activity will
take it this far south into southern South Carolina into
Southeast Georgia during the late afternoon into the evening
hours given the mean westerly flow ahead of the front. A number
of the GEFS members are showing measurable rainfall over the
area as the front settles south, but the 15/12z operational GFS
still looks to have some convective feedback issues. For now,
the 15/13z NBM is favored, but with slightly wetter guidance
blended in to trend. This still yields gridded pops just below
20%, but these are certainly higher than the previous forecast
cycle. Mentionable pops may eventually be needed if models trend
wetter overall. It will remain hot and somewhat humid with
highs warming into the lower-mid 90s away from the immediate
coast. Lows will drop into the upper 60s/lower 70s with mid 70s
at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

Sunday: The frontal remnants will linger nearby through the day
as a sea breeze moves inland. There may be enough instability
and convergence ahead of the sea breeze to generate a few
showers/tstms, mainly inland from the coastal corridor. Slight
chance pops were maintained. Highs will warm into the upper
80s/lower 90s away from the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper ridging will mostly dominate aloft through Tuesday before
the a large upper trough will impact the eastern CONUS by the
middle part of next week, helping to push a stronger cold front
across the Southeast States. The front will bring the next
meaningful chance for showers and tstms. Temperatures will
remain above average through Tuesday, then return closer to
climatology Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z
Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: The risk for showers/tstms will
increase by the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Sea breeze surges in the Charleston Harbor should end
shortly after sunset. Otherwise, southwest winds 10-15 kt will
prevail overnight for all waters with seas 2-4 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: Southerly wind regime will prevail for
much of the period. Another sea breeze surge looks like Friday
along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor. Winds
increase a bit more all areas for Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds may reach as high as 15-20 kt
during this time. Otherwise, speeds will remain less than 15 kt,
except higher near the sea breeze. Seas will generally remain 4
ft or less through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

May 16:
KCHS: 94/1941
KSAV: 95/1915

May 19:
KSAV: 97/1996

May 20:
KSAV: 96/2006


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 16:
KCHS: 71/2018
KSAV: 74/1915

May 17:
KCHS: 74/1995
KCXM: 75/1998
KSAV: 74/1995

May 18:
KCHS: 75/1995
KCXM: 77/1991
KSAV: 74/1899

May 19:
KSAV: 74/1930

May 20:
KCHS: 72/2022
KCXM: 76/2022
KSAV: 73/1896

May 21:
KCHS: 74/2022
KSAV: 74/2017

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...